In October, the overall market news was relatively calm, and the trading sentiment in the rebar futures market weakened. Since the completion of the month swap from the 1301 rebar contract to the 1305 contract, the trading volume and trading volume have decreased, and the trend of rebar futures has continued. Entered a slow rebound in the market, but short-term fluctuations were more intense and frequent. The outlook for the rebar futures market is also difficult to change the current operating law, and will continue to be in a slow rebound channel.
Money supply growth has accelerated.
After the United States launched QE3 and Japan launched economic stimulus policies of tens of trillions of yen, new stimulus policies such as waiting for interest rate cuts and RRR cuts in foreign countries still failed under the endless calls of the market. In response to the shortage of funds, the central bank continued to prefer to use open market reverse repurchase to release liquidity. On October 30, the central bank once again released a large amount of reverse repurchase, and carried out a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 290 billion yuan by way of interest rate bidding. The 14-day reverse repurchase operation with 105 billion yuan, with a total scale of 395 billion yuan, releases liquidity to the market equivalent to the scale of a 0.5% RRR cut, which is the central bank’s largest single-day reverse repurchase operation.
The growth rate of domestic money supply In
September, the growth rate of M1 and M2 began to rebound. According to central bank data, at the end of September, the balance of narrow money (M1) was 28.68 trillion, a year-on-year growth rate of 7.3%, which was 1.6 percentage points lower than the growth rate of the same period last year; during the same period, the balance of broad money (M2) was 94.37 trillion, a year-on-year increase The growth rate was 14.8%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from the same period last year. The supply of M1 and M2 has increased for the second consecutive month.
The rebound in steel prices has led to high production. With the rebound in steel prices in September, steel mills have expanded their profit margins, and steel mills, especially small and medium-sized steel mills, have recovered rapidly. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s rebar output in September was 15.82 million tons, an increase of 17.23% from the same period last year. The month-on-month increase also increased. The rebound in rebar prices has driven the rapid recovery of small and medium-sized steel mills’ output.
According to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s average daily crude steel output in September was 1,931,700 tons, an increase of 2% from 1,893,600 tons in August. In September, China’s steel and wire rod output was 15.823 million tons and 11.782 million tons, an increase of 17.2% and 8% year-on-year; the average daily output of steel and wire rod was 527,400 tons and 392,700 tons, respectively, an increase from the previous month. 8.71% and 5.56%, the average daily output of steel bars hit a record high.
According to data from the National Development and Reform Commission, in the first eight months, the steel industry achieved a profit of 82 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 53.4%. Among them, the profit of the ferrous metal mining and dressing industry was 56.9 billion yuan, down 4.9%; the profit of the iron and steel smelting and processing industry was 19.3 billion yuan, down 81.1%. According to the same caliber data from January to July released by the National Development and Reform Commission, the steel industry realized a profit of 2.7 billion yuan in August, of which the profit of ferrous metal mining and dressing industry was 7.7 billion yuan, and the profit of the steel smelting and processing industry was 5 billion yuan. It can be seen that losses in the domestic steel industry in July and August are further increasing, and the operating situation of steel companies is in trouble.
Infrastructure investment continued to pick up. The
completion of new fixed asset investment From
January to September, the total domestic new fixed asset investment reached 11.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.7%. The growth rate was still significantly lower than the 37.4% year-on-year growth rate in the same period last year. , But it has risen for three consecutive months. The new fixed asset investment in a single month in September reached RMB 2,428 billion, which was a significant increase of 55% over the previous month.
Under the regulation of the real estate policy, the growth rate of the completion of new housing investment in China has not improved, and has remained at a relatively low level. From January to September, China’s housing construction investment completed a total of 5,104.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of 15.4%, and the growth rate fell by half from the 32% growth rate in the same period last year. It has not shown any improvement in the past four months, basically stable Keep it around 16%.
Real estate development investment completed
Recently, the relevant leaders of the State Council and the Development and Reform Commission have expressed their views that they must ensure the completion of this year’s railway investment plan. The total scale of the national railway fixed asset investment plan in 2012 was 630 billion yuan, of which 516 billion yuan was invested in capital construction. In the first three quarters of this year, the national railway system completed a total of 344.15 billion yuan in fixed asset investment and 292.05 billion yuan in infrastructure construction. This means that in the fourth quarter of this year, railway fixed asset investment will be completed at 285.85 billion yuan, and infrastructure construction investment will be completed at 223.95 billion yuan. The acceleration of investment in infrastructure such as railways will have an obvious pulling effect on the demand for domestic construction steel in the later period. However, it is worth noting that after the winter, the northern market will enter another cycle of seasonal demand shrinking, and steel consumption will inevitably be affected.
The continued decline in market inventories showed a trend of recovery. In
October, the market inventory of rebar, except for the holiday factor of the November holiday, basically continued the downward trend, but the decline has slowed down. As of October 26, the national rebar inventory was 4.89 million tons, which is already lower than the 5.71 million tons in the same period last year.
National rebar inventory statistics
. From the perspective of the total inventory of the five major types of wire rod, rebar, hot-rolled coil, cold-rolled coil, and plate, the recent total national comprehensive inventory is 12.63445 million tons. In general, after deducting the long-term factors of the National Day, national steel inventories have fallen for 13 consecutive weeks, but the decline in the last week has slowed down compared with the previous two weeks. As the weather across the country begins to turn cooler, the reduction in project operating rates will bring construction steel into the traditional off-season. In addition, the release of steel mills’ production capacity has shown a significant acceleration in the recent two months as steel prices pick up. In the later period, domestic steel products Inventory is likely to be gradually transferred to the rising stage.
The slow bull market outlook for steel futures is
due to the loose money supply in the market, the smooth progress of inventory digestion, and the support of bullish factors such as the increase in infrastructure projects. In addition, the rapid release of steel mill output and other negative factors are constrained. We judge the late stage of rebar futures It is still difficult to get rid of the volatile upward channel formed in October within a one-month period. The price of rebar futures 1305 will be supported below at 3580 points, and at 3800 points, there will be a mid-to-long-term pressure level overlap. The resistance is relatively large, and a major positive news from the macro or the industry is needed to form a breakthrough. .
Link to this article：What is steel futures? What are the application areas of steel futures?
Reprint Statement: If there are no special instructions, all articles on this site are original. Please indicate the source for reprinting:Alloy Wiki，thanks