According to research by TrendForce, the semiconductor industry has undergone structural changes in the post-epidemic era, coupled with the alternation of communication generations between 5G and WiFi6/6E, and the resulting boom in HPC (High Performance Computing) applications.
Even if the demand for home economy such as laptops and TVs will return to normal after the epidemic is brought under control after the global vaccination is popularized, the conversion of product specifications driven by the change of communication generations will still support the semiconductor capacity utilization rate. relatively high-end level. In 2021, some manufacturers will gradually expand new production capacity. It is expected that the output value of the overall foundry industry will hit a record high again this year at US$94.5 billion, with an annual increase of 11%.
From the perspective of various terminal demand performance, driven by 5G and HPC, it is estimated that the annual growth rate of server and workstation shipments will increase this year; secondly, the penetration rate of 5G mobile phones will rise to 37%, and the annual growth rate of shipments will increase The rate of shipment is about 113%; third, the momentum of notebook shipments will continue to be influenced by the housing economy, and the annual growth rate of shipments is estimated to be about 15%. Streaming services, ultra-high-resolution panels (4K/8K) and smart TVs (Smart TVs) have seen a significant replacement wave. The global TV shipments are estimated to grow at an annual growth rate of about 3%.
Due to the constant demand of the terminal, the demand for various application ICs, such as CIS, DDI, PMIC, etc., has surged, and the cloud computing services based on the HPC platform, such as IaaS, PaaS, SaaS, etc., are also suitable for various high-end processors. Creates a lot of demand with memory.
Overall, TrendForce believes that under the steady growth of various terminal demands, the corresponding IC process technology platforms are still affected by the allocation of wafer capacity, and the short-term foundry market shortage has not eased.
The structure of the semiconductor industry has changed, and some manufacturers will gradually expand their production capacity in 2021
Looking at the development plans of various semiconductor manufacturers this year, the first echelon TSMC and Samsung will develop, expand and expand production for 5nm and below processes to support the vigorous development of HPC-related applications; while the second echelon SMIC, UMC, GF, etc. mainly expand mature processes such as 14~40nm to support the huge demand for communication technology changes such as 5G and WiFi6/6E, as well as OLED DDI, CIS/ ISP and other diverse applications.
At present, although SMIC is restricted, the plan for a new factory in Beijing continues, and there are active expansion plans for the existing 8-inch and 12-inch factories, so there are still relevant funds available for the purchase of non-US equipment and New plant construction, etc.
It is worth mentioning that due to the need to use DUV Immersion equipment for processes below 45/40nm (inclusive), the capital expenditure is relatively high. Taking 45nm as the dividing point, the expansion of technology nodes above 65/55nm (inclusive) will affect foundries. It is a more economical investment.
Therefore, including PSMC, Tower semiconductor, Vanguard, HHGrace, etc. are mainly based on the expansion of 55nm or 8-inch factories to meet the needs of large-scale DDI , TDDI, PMIC and other requirements.